Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.261413 0.294946 0.331284 0.373613 0.421598 0.474345 0.536778
2025-11-02 0.200891 0.243140 0.292335 0.353945 0.429180 0.518247 0.631965
2025-11-09 0.156302 0.201277 0.257090 0.331648 0.428967 0.552134 0.720564
2025-11-16 0.127758 0.174101 0.235059 0.321471 0.441424 0.602943 0.838447
2025-11-23 0.105708 0.151702 0.215519 0.311067 0.451470 0.651731 0.961742
2025-11-30 0.092864 0.139867 0.208421 0.316474 0.484017 0.736385 1.149991
2025-12-07 0.078194 0.123042 0.191486 0.304542 0.488678 0.780296 1.284070
2025-12-14 0.067697 0.110969 0.179864 0.298785 0.501657 0.838536 1.450343
2025-12-21 0.059099 0.100630 0.169418 0.293146 0.513598 0.896380 1.625229
2025-12-28 0.054085 0.095506 0.166760 0.300102 0.547865 0.997062 1.892621
2026-01-04 0.048338 0.088275 0.159424 0.297553 0.564433 1.068198 2.116767
2026-01-11 0.044051 0.083069 0.154947 0.299497 0.589468 1.158529 2.393455
2026-01-18 0.040745 0.079399 0.153091 0.306757 0.627184 1.281809 2.765256
2026-01-25 0.035848 0.071992 0.143110 0.296445 0.627833 1.330569 2.988486
2026-02-01 0.031178 0.064417 0.131792 0.281725 0.616951 1.353481 3.159213
2026-02-08 0.027963 0.059411 0.125056 0.275776 0.624293 1.417478 3.438070
2026-02-15 0.025060 0.054683 0.118275 0.268717 0.628013 1.473929 3.710077
2026-02-22 0.023529 0.052747 0.117279 0.274667 0.663136 1.609984 4.209724
2026-03-01 0.021046 0.048343 0.110196 0.265258 0.659575 1.651395 4.470355
2026-03-08 0.019192 0.045152 0.105480 0.260886 0.667919 1.724175 4.831273
2026-03-15 0.017537 0.042220 0.100992 0.256414 0.675290 1.795686 5.203540
2026-03-22 0.016681 0.041113 0.100754 0.262772 0.712420 1.953160 5.859547
2026-03-29 0.015448 0.038912 0.097523 0.260768 0.726349 2.048897 6.349365